More Used Commercial Trucks Expected to be Sold in the Future... For Less Money

Auction volume is expected to trend upward and pricing downward for three- to five-year-old trucks, according to J.D. Power and Associates.

Looking at auction/wholesale performance of used sleeper tractors, J.D. Power’s Guidelines update shows that depreciation has generally accelerated in the second half of 2016.

“Since January, trucks of model year 2013 have lost about 22% of their value, trucks of model year 2012 have lost about 37% of their value, and trucks of model year 2011 have lost about 31% of their value,” the update states.

It adds, “Based on the expected returning supply of three- to five-year-old trucks in the long term, expect auction volume to continue to trend upward, and pricing to trend downward.”

The update shows that the larger overall wholesale environment — auction, dealer-to-dealer, and dealer-to-wholesaler combined — is also trending negative.

Compared to September 2016, trucks sold in October were three months older with fewer miles, and brought in $4,736 less.

Compared to October 2015, trucks sold in October 2016 were identical in age and had nearly 30,000 fewer miles, but brought in $5,561 less. Retail pricing depreciation was not as pronounced, and actually outperformed J.D. Power’s depreciation forecast, but the update says, “However, based on returning supply, there will be more downward pressure on pricing than upward over the long term.”

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